Last week’s WADSE report raised a few eyebrows with corn firmly in the headlights. Last February USDA estimates showed the 2024/25 US corn ending stocks surging 17% on the year to a multi-decade high of 2.532 billion bushels, fast forward to the most recent report and end stocks are down to 1.738 billion bushels.
Read MoreStay updated on grain markets as 2025 approaches, with insights on contract management, Euro weakness, and global wheat dynamics. Discover the impact of Russia's export duties, Bulgaria's exceptional wheat crop, and market trends shaping the season.
Read MoreThere is an old market adage in the grain trade that “if the bears have Thanksgiving, the bulls will have Christmas.” The first part of this saying definitely rings true with US markets near 4-year lows and London May 25 futures now offered sub the markets lows of last June.
Read MoreUK wheat markets face pressure from export surpluses, while EU oilseed rape prices surge on global vegetable oil demand and Sterling devaluation.
Read MoreUK wheat futures dipped mid-week on improved Crop 25 prospects and increased plantings but rebounded slightly, with global political news providing only brief market support.
Read More
Last week’s monthly WADSE (World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates) report from the USDA should keep markets in their well entrenched defensive tone. Global wheat production was increased to 794.73mmt from 794.08mmt with a 2mmt increase for Kazakhstan, offsetting reductions for Russia, the EU, Argentina and Brazil.
Read More
All about the US Election this week, with the only certainty being the huge uncertainty over the result.
Read MoreUK grains finished on a weaker note last week as we saw the first tender date for London Nov 24 futures arrive. This is the process where a futures contract, in existent for up to 2.5 years and traded numerous times can be transferred into an actual physical contract that can be collected and delivered into a feed mill.
Read MoreLast week the AHDB released its provisional UK crop production estimate, pegging the crop at 11.1mmt, down 2.9 mmt from last harvest 2023.
Read MoreLast week Defra released their provisional estimates for 2024 English cereal and oilseed rape production.
Read More
With growing tensions in the Middle East, we have seen some nervousness in macro indicators including the oil price – up $9/barrel over two weeks
Read More
The grain market turns its attention to the USDA’s global grains stocks report tomorrow which is expected to show the largest Sep 1st stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat since 2020.
Read MoreAlthough the UK does not currently have an export surplus, the biggest threat to grain prices this season is the oversupply of feed wheat – dragging down the base price.
Read MoreIt’s likely that August Bank Holiday saw the bottom of this market as the rally extends now to a third week. Thursday’s USDA report did have some bearish numbers in it but didn’t hold things back for long.
Read More
As we thought likely, last week markets stopped going down, which is the first thing they need to do if they are to have a chance of going back up.
Read More
UK markets opened after the holiday weekend with an alarming £5 dip to set a new low, then spent the rest of the shortened week recovering to finish just above unchanged.
Read MoreCommodities remain under severe pressure with no respite in sight for the time being, a potentially enormous US corn crop looms over everything still.
Read More
Markets had another push lower last week. Egypt’s spectacular tender was not fulfilled, they bought no more than their usual quantities, asking for 277 days credit on cargoes probably didn’t help.
Read More
Despite a week of dramatic news, markets refused to budge from their stubbornly sideways stance all week.
Read More
Harvest continues at a good pace in most areas and we’ve seen enough wheat now to have a sense of the crop we are dealing with.
Read More