Monday Market Briefing - 10th March 2025

Markets had such downside momentum last week they were able to trade £3 lower across the board despite a heavy slump in Sterling which in more normal times would have put £6/mt back into our export values.  That illustrates the old crop challenge pretty well – with both UK and France appearing to have problem wheat surpluses to sort out before the end of the season.

This week might be the one where the sell off ends, USDA will update current season export sales for corn and wheat on Tuesday and if these are as heavy as many predict that could be the bullish signal that halts the slide. Buyers might then conclude we are as low as we can go and start to show some interest, probably not in enough volume to drive a recovery but it would be refreshing to see old crops bids reappearing and some opportunities to make those last sales.

New crop was dragged into the slide as well, with the May-Nov carry holding at around £14-15/mt. There are some useful and low risk early movement premiums around for some wheat grades which are definitely worth a look particularly if you are yet to dip a toe in the 2025 market. Winter wheats in much of the south are reportedly emerging from the winter in good shape, do take a look at our recent e-shot with its hopefully timely reminder about supporting the high yielding soft wheats for quality with your fieldwork in this critical period. With soft wheat premiums currently exceeding the group 1 equivalent in many places, these soft wheat crops are a potential goldmine this year if they are enabled to reach their full potential.

Have a good week.