Monday Market Briefing - 25th November 2024

UK grains finished with small gains on the week.  May 25 futs closed £3 up whilst Nov 25 had a £2 lift.  Heightened tensions in the Russia/Ukrainian war were the key support for the  global grains complex, with the 1000 day anniversary being recognised by long range missile strikes on both sides of the border.

 We also have our first guide on next seasons UK wheat supply dynamic and it looks like strong planting intentions have been realised. Although clearly the recovery in plantings could have been more pronounced.  The AHDB’s early bird survey on planting intentions (intentions being the key word here, intentions were high in Autumn 2023), puts wheat plantings up 5% year on year at 1.613 million hectares. The 5 year average is 1.7 million hectares so we are some way below, but there is a consensus that the kind November weather has led to an additional wheat area being planted to the detriment of Spring Barley.  Time will tell of course but I wouldn’t be surprised if the final area isn’t a lot closer to the 5 year average.

 Even if we only achieve 1.613 million hectares, with average yields we will still have a 13 million tonne wheat crop on top of this years carryout. Not necessarily a problem but it will force us to mix it up in the party that is global wheat trade.

French farmers have certainly got there va va voom on in recent weeks. Wheat plantings there, after a very slow start that lent us solid market support, have now reached 90% complete, up 12% on the week and 17% ahead of where they were last year. French farmers are expected to plant an additional 1 million hectares of wheat this autumn. So along with us, the rest of Europe and Ukraine (up 400kmt hectares year on year) it looks like a solid supply response.

Have a good week.