Monday Market Briefing- 31st March 2025

Today ( Monday ) we finally see the keenly awaited USDA plantings report, and with it the first proper indication of the potential size of Americas 2025 grain harvest. If analysts have called it right, the numbers will include a substantial increase in corn acres and an area likely to produce America’s first ever 400 million tonne crop. About 80 million of these tonnes would be surplus to domestic requirement and so needing to be exported, not the best time to be chucking tariffs around you might think.

This looming report has hung over the market like a bad smell for some time now, and in other times this might well be a moment for  ‘ sell the rumour, buy the fact ‘. Unfortunately there’s plenty of other unhelpful news around to keep the markets under pressure for the time being, improving safe Black Sea shipping lanes has been top of the agenda in ceasefire negotiations for example and its also true that most of the worlds producing regions are enjoying favourable weather outlooks at the moment.  

We’ve said enough times here recently that old crop needed clearing out so we won’t repeat it again- but with spring crops emerging in great shape now might be the time to have a nibble at new crop especially if you have a blank page so far. There are significant premiums around on lots of things all with good safety nets if you miss the quality and we expect the recent increase in farm engagement with forward markets  will continue , rightly so.  

Have a good week.