Monday Market Briefing - 16th December 2024

Last week’s WADSE report raised a few eyebrows with corn firmly in the headlights.  Last February USDA estimates showed the 2024/25 US corn ending stocks surging 17% on the year to a multi-decade high of 2.532 billion bushels, fast forward to the most recent report and end stocks are down to 1.738 billion bushels.

Most of that legwork came from a 19% dive in 2023-24 ending stocks since February. But the supply shrinkages in both 2023-24 and 2024-25 owe to better-than-expected demand rates as corn prices dipped to four-year lows this year.

US corn sales continue to rocket even with China not engaging as much as normal, the fear is these purchases are being stockpiled before Trump’s threatened tariff regime comes into force when his term starts in the new year. If this is the case US export sales could stall in the new year, you can’t buy it twice.  It is also worth mentioning that this US corn dynamic is based on a very high yield of 183 bushels per acre and historically the USDA tends to reduce yield estimates post harvest, if this happens it can only be supportive.

On Friday we had the latest release of UK import/export data and it came as little surprise to see no meaningful easing of the wheat import pace.  Oct wheat imports were 252kmt, down a little from  September’s 279kmt but still a hefty number.  Total imports Jul/Oct are now at 1.14mmt, not far from double what they were at the same point last year. It is beginning to feel like importers are over solving the problem of last years lower wheat plantings making markets next summer look very vulnerable. Remember this time last year there was a clear incentive to over year wheat whereas at the moment the only reason to push wheat into next season will be the hope value.

Have a good week.