Monday Market Briefing - 3rd March 2025

All markets remain under pressure for another week. With very favourable weather forecasts everywhere for early March there’s apparently nothing to stop farmers fulfilling their declared planting intentions for spring cropping in the US and Europe. This is good news of course, but it does remove one fear from the market, that of the corn crop not getting in the ground. At home, the early bird survey of farmer intentions this year revealed the expected swing back towards winter cropping and a corresponding increase in wheat area and a dip in spring barley plantings particularly – both numbers being closer to the five-year average than was the case in 2024. In the event, another difficult winter may have adjusted the final areas somewhat meaning overall the anticipated 2025 crop should not provide any shocks all things being well.  

Perhaps no surprise then that new crop values also fell on the week, the premium for Nov 25 over May 25 has widened now to £14, still some way short of last years gap but moving into territory where some farmers might consider carrying grain over ? We saw very strong demand for late entrants into commercial storage as harvest approached last year leading to some being disappointed as stores filled up.  Obviously if the 2025 harvest performs well worldwide there would be no reason for the current risk-loaded new crop premium to continue, so perhaps a bit of base-price cover, with prems to sort out later, is a good idea now if you haven’t already done some.

Have a good week.