Monday Market Briefing - 3rd February 2025

Targeted import tariffs on some goods imported into the US will become a reality on Tuesday, with Mexico, China, and Canada vowing retaliatory actions of their own. Mexico alone imports 18 million tonnes of maize each year, much of it from America, so it’s easy to see how disruptive maize tariffs could be and why the market is jittery about the possibility. Trump himself admitted this might be a bumpy ride in the short term. Markets do not like uncertainty, and most exchanges traded lower on Friday—ignoring some crop concerns in South America, which may yet return to the fore once everyone calms down.

That said, we ended yet another week with base prices unchanged—six in a row now. Markets don’t get any more directionless than this. Arguably, this suggests underlying support for prices, but the danger is that old crop demand is rather finite, and eventually, we may simply run out of homes as summer approaches. Malting barley has slipped back into slumber mode, so attention returns to wheat (all grades) and oats, where good opportunities remain for now.

Have a good week.