Monday Market Briefing - 18th November 2024

Grains continued with their steady weakening before enjoying a tick up at closing time on Friday as books are squared off before the weekend.  Last Thursday, key contract London May 25 futures traded at £186.05, just 50p off the contract of early June 2024.  After blazing through our much-discussed key support level of £190 mid-week, futures markets have bounced. Sometimes support becomes resistance and this feels like it could be the case with our wheat markets given the current supply and demand dynamic.

Much improved prospects for the Crop 25 wheat crop were the main catalyst for last week’s declines, along with a quieter period in the Ukraine/Russia war. Today’s news that Biden will allow Ukraine to use US missiles in Russia gave the oversold market a hike up, but a lack of follow-through buying reminds us that this market isn’t as responsive to global politics as once was.

 With plantings up together here and in Europe we are looking at a potential big rebound in wheat production.  Estimates are for a million more hectares of wheat in the EU and the AHDB have their early bird planting intentions out later this week.  For the past few seasons, we have been able to brush the concept and brutal reality of UK wheat exports under the carpet, we might not be able to for much longer so a look at Crop 25 values needs to be encouraged.

Have a good week.