Monday Market Briefing - 17th February 2025

Wheat found some support in the US on Friday, partly helped by some dollar weakness but also due to drought concerns for both winter and spring crops over there. A neutral USDA report earlier in the week did point to some further tightening of world corn stocks, which leaves the market more sensitive to weather stories than it otherwise would be. None of this added to old crop values, which remained unchanged as slow demand across most markets continues to bite. New crop did widen its premium to old crop slightly, but the gap is much smaller than we saw last year, meaning the UK needs to shift any surpluses this time around, faced with an unattractive carry forward.

We will probably load our last feed barley cargo of the season next week, with that vessel joining a reported armada of UK vessels headed mostly for Ireland – it’s not too late to get on it if you have feed barley to sort out in the south-east corner, so give us a call. This activity tidies up UK barley quite well, with any surplus malting barley probably also being washed away, given the narrow premiums currently offered by a switched-off malt market – that one being in for a shock when it eventually comes shopping for late-season cargoes that won’t be there.

UK feed wheat is going to need a similar campaign to balance the books this season as, despite the small crop, our need for quality wheat imports is creating a surplus of low-quality feed wheat that needs to go somewhere. Spring shipments to Ireland probably hold the key, but in the meantime, any premium over feed you can grab for lower protein samples is worth securing.

Have a good week.