Monday Market Briefing - 11th November 2024

Last week’s monthly WADSE (World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates) report from the USDA should keep markets in their well entrenched defensive tone.  Global wheat production was increased to 794.73mmt from 794.08mmt with a 2mmt increase for Kazakhstan, offsetting reductions for Russia, the EU, Argentina and Brazil.

However, there was a reminder that global stocks could be more ample and this might prohibit any significant erosion of the global grain prices. Compared to the October report, the increase in global wheat consumption (+0.87 at 803.41 mmt ) more than offsets the increases in global wheat beginning stocks (+0.07 at 266.25 mmt) and in global wheat production (+0.65 mmt), which results in a decrease in global wheat ending stocks of -0.15 at 257.57.

Global corn production estimates were increased from 1217.19 to 1219.4 mmt for 2024/25, compared to 1229.11 mmt for 2023/24.  The 2024/25 US corn yield was decreased from 183.8 to 183.1 bpa, a bit more than trade estimates, pushing US corn production down 1.5mmt to 384.64mmt.

So maybe a line in the sand with most of the post harvest bearish corn supply data in perhaps attention will switch to demand for grains globally, but with plenty of keen sellers (including Russia despite the constant propaganda from their ministers) setting their wheat and corn stalls out firework seem unlikely this winter.

Closer to home, WADSE raised the UK wheat crop by 200kmt to 11.05mmt with imports at a very hefty 3.2mmt pushing the carry out in July 25 to 2.88mmt.  With plantings here entering the final lap it is hard to see how the UK after several years of being able to ignore the very unpalatable export markets wont need to be competing against Black Sea/Baltic exporters next Autumn.

Have a good week.