Monday Market Briefing - 9th September 2024

As we thought likely, last week markets stopped going down, which is the first thing they need to do if they are to have a chance of going back up. This week we have a WASDE update due on Thursday which could renew pressure but really it feels like all the bearish news about crop sizes is out there now and if you are a buyer waiting for more downside, where is that going to come from ? The UK crop is safely stored away but farmers need to make some sales to create cash and so the post-harvest dance begins.

The long market slide has had pauses in it before but this time it’s different because of where we are on the calendar so expect this week to see support continue. For sellers the dilemma really is what to offer up first. Malting barley looks like a (very) slow burner which will reward long holding. Wheat is more tricky as the swollen carry to May 25 places late season prices at a premium to new crop, unlike last years massive discount. That’s fine if we don’t have an export surplus but assuming healthy wheat plantings this autumn its hard to see what we would do with any spare wheat at the end of this current campaign as it will be too expensive to carry over.

At the risk of sounding like the needles stuck, early season milling wheat prices look the most attractive from our view.

Have a good week.