Monday Market Briefing - 16th September 2024

It’s likely that August Bank Holiday saw the bottom of this market as the rally extends now to a third week. Thursday’s USDA report did have some bearish numbers in it but didn’t hold things back for long.  The mood has shifted and whilst analysts search through data for insights and explanation, the truth is simply that buyers outnumber sellers for the time being with some big International tenders being filled last week. News that a Ukrainian grain vessel was hit by a Russian missile as it exited the Danube caused a small flutter on the exchanges where not so long ago it might have caused a £10/MT leap. It’s possible this one was a mis-targeted weapon but markets will be wary of any retaliatory strikes to other vessels – there’s certainly plenty to choose from as Black Sea routes are extremely busy with new crop shipments now. However, with both sides continuing to virtue-signal the importance of feeding the world, this type of escalation would be hard for either of them to explain away.

The upwards run might have one more week in it before it starts to look top-heavy. We are not running out of wheat any time soon, this would be a good moment to join in if you have not already done so. As expected, domestic markets for September movement have filled up very quickly with the last opportunities for October likely to be allocated this week. Later harvested crops are showing signs of weather damage and should be kept separate from earlier ones wherever possible at least until they have been checked over. Our farm sampling service continues well beyond harvest so don’t hesitate to call if you would like a visit.

Have a good week.