Monday Market Briefing - 21st November 2022

As widely expected, the Black Sea corridor deal was extended so now we can all talk about something else for a while, at least until it expires again in four months time. With the cancellation threat removed, markets tested the downside last week but quickly found support as buyers came in so we ended the week comfortably above the lower support level we illustrated in last weeks report.

China popped up as buyers of French wheat, a surprise and a first for this season, they have been heavy buyers of that crop in recent years but not so far in this campaign presumably on quality concerns. Saudi Arabia on the other hand bought 1 million tonnes of wheat which is likely to be shipped largely from Russia. At this time of year markets rely quite heavily for sentiment and direction on International tender activity so its encouraging to see these big deals landing particularly against the much discussed back-drop of poor economic prospects worldwide.

There’s an old saying that there’s ‘nowt so firm as a market that’s tried to go lower and failed’ so if that logic holds we can expect to see prices at least maintain current levels for some time now.

At home attention is switching to post Christmas markets, the Nov Dec positions look pretty full other than topping up some of the steady stream of vessels passing through. It does look like the UK is on a respectable export pace – we are loading simultaneously in two Ports again this week – so keep in touch to see what’s in Port each week and catch any spot deals when they come up.  

Have a good week.