Tuesday Market Briefing - 28th May 2024

As we said in our last briefing, the upside rally may be ready to take a breather and sure enough, two weeks down the track - despite daily volatility - we are pretty much sideways. Worrying crop reports around the world continue to emerge, taking away any potential downside, but Nov24 has now opened up an £11 premium over Nov25. That’s a measure of the weather premium now locked into the 2024 crop market and of course without actual harvest yields we can’t know yet if this adjustment is about right, or too big, or too small ?  

Most of the markets daily activity is between traders with consumers generally staying on the sidelines, one thing’s for sure if they do all decide to join in the market will get another shove upwards, but for the time being it’s a waiting game.  

Old crop is winding down now, the UK is set to carry about 3 million tonnes of old crop wheat into new crop - roughly double the usual amount – which should balance the books for 2024 unless the crop falls short of expectations. That said, we have a busy programmes still on most grades for June particularly so there are opportunities to clear that barn before the store cleaners arrive.  

Have a good week.