Monday Market Briefing - 8th April 2024

We continued sideways over the holiday period, holding on to recent gains, as the USDA report predicted 6 million acres lower wheat/corn plantings for the US -a bit worse than expected. Northern hemisphere crops generally will be relatively compromised this year. On the face of it that shouldn’t matter too much given good stocks worldwide but it does mean the market will be even more sensitive than usual to early summer weather forecasts and condition updates – the latter looking pretty sorry at the moment especially on spring crops ( where planted ! )

The worst of our weather catches the north this week, where drilling is furthest behind- southern areas might get away with a just a few showers and perhaps even an opportunity to finish up.

After a busy start to the year, ex farm selling has largely dried up in recent weeks, which is of course a factor in helping prices stabilise, so any surge in demand now would lift prices quickly but so far there are no signs of that happening. Buyers don’t want to pay the big carry into new crop and won’t do so until forced by the calendar to act. So it’s all a bit of a standoff for the time being –and likely to remain so for a while - who’s going to blink first ?

Best action on old crop markets is currently malting barley which has enjoyed a decent rally – laurate and planet both in demand for end of season tidying up. Milling wheat premiums continue to baffle everyone, there is much cheaper wheat available ex Europe but we can still achieve huge premiums for home produce on top grades especially.

Have a good week