Monday Market Briefing - 4th July 2022

The US is closed on Monday for Independence Day; the prospect of the three day weekend was a factor in a sharp sell-off late last week with rain in the forecast to possibly improve crops. The EU Commission has now revised European wheat production down by 5 million tonnes due to the recent heatwave – a move which may come back to haunt the market when the immediate selling pressure eases. Buyers are waiting for harvest to commence and may get a shock if they need supplies at the last minute. In the short term bears have control, but in these very high price ranges we have no way to gauge where the market stops. 

In contrast to our European neighbours, Southern UK crops continue to look in excellent shape. As harvest approaches the forecast for all the first half of July is warm and dry, perfect for the last days of grain fill. We held a malting barley tour last week visiting a number of sites in our region and prospects do indeed look generally positive for a highly marketable crop.  

Have a good week.