Monday Market Briefing - 3rd October 2022

With harvest now a distant memory, we finally arrive at October and the start of the export season proper. The UK has a lot of business to do if we are not be left holding substantial stocks at the end of the season. Fortunately, markets remain in positive mood and certainly our own export programme is getting into gear with four vessels expected at Shoreham in the next three weeks.

The USDA published its quarterly stock update late Friday – not normally a riveting read – but this one threw a spanner in the works by calling US wheat production close to 4mln tonnes lower than expected and also trimming corn ending stocks for last season. If this is followed by a reduction in the current US corn crop, as many expect, then we are heading into some very tight supply numbers for corn later in the season - US markets traded 50 cents higher before calming down somewhat, but our own markets should open higher Monday if only to catch up. In other times, the disappearance of 5 mln tonnes of wheat/corn from the World balance sheet might be shrugged off, but the importance of Black Sea exports is now heightened further, just as the Ukraine war enters a new and very dangerous phase.

EU Importers such as Spain have benefitted from the resumption of Ukrainian shipments- but Putin has highlighted Spain as typical of the Countries that should not be receiving what he considers to be food aid. The annual European Commodities Exchange Bourse takes place in Valencia this week. We will be there, so watch this space for news of the opportunities we think are opening up.

Have a good week.