Monday Market Briefing - 30th September 2024

The grain market turns its attention to the USDA’s global grains stocks report tomorrow which is expected to show the largest Sep 1st stocks of corn, soybeans and wheat since 2020. Plentiful supplies of all three crops pushed future markets to four year lows during July and August 2024, and analysts are nervous of further bearish estimates following the 2023/24 marketing year-end.

Supportive price data includes the EU Commission cutting it’s 2024/25 wheat production to a 12-year low of 114.6 mln MT. By itself, this information is not enough to rally prices, but unfavourable harvest weather conditions in Ukraine could reduce their grain harvest from 60 mln MT to 54.6 mln MT in the country’s last estimate. Further wet weather across Western Europe is delaying winter planting, but conversely, the Southern Hemisphere are experiencing near perfect harvest conditions for corn and soybeans. The plentiful supply of corn becomes a huge problem for global feed wheat values, as corn continues its role as the global feed grain base.

Grain markets closer to home in the UK continue to function efficiently, with homes currently available for pre-Xmas movement of most material. However, with large milling premiums available, UK growers should take advantage of these markets, providing timely cash-flow and prompt movement for those with long-term storage concerns.

Have a good week