Monday Market Briefing - 28th November 2022

The USA published weak economic data on Wednesday before heading off into the Thanksgiving shutdown. Sterling ended the weak at a three-month high against the Dollar, which contributed to home grain prices hitting recent lows. Southern hemisphere harvests are well under way now, yields are good in Western Australia but poor in Argentina- in the coming weeks we will gradually see how the World market adjusts to changes in anticipated availability in these regions. International cargoes are often traded on ‘optional origin‘ basis, meaning the seller can switch to alternative load-ports when supply problems emerge. Hence these ongoing harvests can impact business already traded as well as new contracts still to come. Russias daily bombardment of Ukraine is no longer considered newsworthy but continues nevertheless. The pace of Ukrainian exports remains seriously stalled since the corridor re-opened with relatively few ships moving.

At home the pace of farm selling has slowed – there is a sense we have come back a little too far too quickly and the post-Christmas demand - which Consumers have not rushed to cover - might not come quite as easily as they assume. UK farmers are widely thought to be less fully sold than their European counterparts but that’s a common theme at this time of year and is not always borne out by events when we get into the second half of the season. For the time being it’s a waiting game for the next chapter as this crazy season unfolds –  another quiet trading week beckons.

Have a good week.