Monday Market Briefing - 26th September 2022

Growing tensions within Russia served to increase uncertainty, markets have reacted higher and we set three month highs last week. Russia’s huge wheat export surplus could top 50 mln tonnes – removing any lingering doubt that the World has plenty of wheat this year - but how readily this grain gets into the market in the medium term is simply an unknown. Commentators universally panned the Government’s new plan to boost the economy, the fall in Sterling after it was announced obviously adds value to UK grain exports but the truth is these markets are quite hard work at the moment. Consumers don’t appear to have either forward sales to cover, or the confidence that they will come. In some cases buyers are lifting later month cargoes early rather than buying fresh spot material which only adds to the slightly unreal atmosphere.

Latest updates of crop gross margin analyses from our Agronomy team confirm that 22 crop and 23 crop are both eminently tradeable at current input/output levels – strong margins can be readily secured. Perhaps it’s worth re-emphasising that all growers have a choice, either to embrace all this unpredictability and whatever it brings, or lock into safe returns and watch events as an interested spectator.

This week our focus is on group 1 wheats, with movement available and protein fallbacks to 12.0 if needed. Call the Office or your farm trader for details if you want to grab some value in this latest rally. Our first malting barley vessel of the season left Shoreham last week and achieved a quality spec very much in line with buyers needs. We will be back on barley very soon so there is plenty  to get involved with.

Have a good week.