Monday Market Briefing - 23rd January 2023

Market slipped £6 last week to set a new low for the current move. It’s not the positive mood we were hoping to see in the New Year that’s for sure but at least there is plenty of activity going on. The UK appears to have a gaggle of bigger wheat vessels in the line-up for the next few weeks which should knock a decent hole in our export surplus. Pinning down how much we need to sell nationally is always a bit of a guessing game but the consensus this season places our wheat surplus at around 2 million tonnes, a recent year high but quite manageable in historical terms.  

However, customs data for the July-Nov 22 period, the latest so far published, shows us lagging behind the required pace if we are to clear the barn. We actually imported more wheat than we exported in that period, the AHDB will publish its latest UK supply and demand forecast this Thursday which we expect will shine a light on this subject again. Its good news that markets are clearly open for this material but it’s hard to see UK prices making a positive move for the time being unless they get a shove from outside events.

Quality grain markets have also been active, we have three malting barley vessels this week in line astern at Shoreham to get our Jan March programme off to a flyer so plenty of interest there, group 1’s continue to be traded at high premiums domestically and we also need more soft wheat for both our domestic and export customers – as always speak to your farm trader for the latest prices.

Have a good week.