Monday Market Briefing - 22nd July 2024

We had a see-saw week ending up unchanged. Mondays USDA report confirmed what we already knew that the US wheat crop is performing very well, we traded lower. By mid-week a significant upswing in International demand was evident and prices stabilised, then reports for the first 10-15% of the wheat harvest in Europe and Russia disappointed, and this began to take prominence with MATIF closing +E9 on Friday night after the latest update from France. 

Europe/Russia accounts for well over half the worlds wheat exports, and no amount of US wheat can make up that shortfall if it continues to worsen. Is the market over-reacting ? Harvest weather prospects look a little better for next two weeks although the next shower is never far away in most areas. The feeling persists that wheat is a little too cheap, expect the volatility to continue at least until the picture becomes clearer.

At home first samples of winter barley were encouraging with good bushel weights a clue to some exceptional yields reported on individual farms, lets hope that’s a sign of what’s to come, it might just be in demand.

Have a good week.