For the final note of the year, it’s worth taking stock of where we have arrived at after the most tumultuous years trading any of us has seen. May 23 wheat has traded across a £160/mt range over the course of 2022, but remarkably International wheat prices are set to end the year right back where we started on the 1st January. The same is true for crude oil which is actually slightly cheaper now than at the start of the year, gas still holds on to a stubborn premium, but the higher values for UK wheat still visible are now solely due to the weakening of Sterling over the same period.  

Markets then, are convinced we have enough grains both available and accessible to see out the current season. Of course, the risks to supply look every bit as dangerous for 2023 as they were this year, the prospect of a Russian spring offensive in Ukraine may lack the sense of surprise this time but would still place the grain corridor in jeopardy again and with the World heavily reliant on Russia’s wheat surplus to balance demand, sadly this isn’t over yet by a long shot.  

Despite the wider economic headwinds, we do expect to see enough demand for UK old crop to safely find routes to market in the New Year – our exceptional harvest quality helps enormously and buyers should have a fair bit still to do. With a busy Jan-Feb programme already on the books we will be keen buyers of most grades from the off.  

Have a good week, and a very Happy Christmas.