Monday Market Briefing - 19th August 2024

Markets had another push lower last week. Egypt’s spectacular tender was not fulfilled, they bought no more than their usual quantities, asking for 277 days credit on cargoes probably didn’t help. Elsewhere fresh updates from USDA and IGC trimmed some crops, notably barley, but it’s increasingly clear overall world supply is ample for this season.

So with the wider markets offering nothing to get hold of, and harvest sample results landing in your inbox,  it’s time to focus on the home market where most of our output is destined to stay. In the UK we know feed wheat carried over from last year will solve any supply issues we might otherwise have seen from a smaller crop, but the surplus this year is smaller than last years and might not exert quite the same pressure we saw last time round. Nevertheless any surplus is still a surplus and late season markets will be vulnerable to all that implies. Milling wheat quality looks very good, with even the lower protein samples exhibiting good alveograph scores which should keep the domestic buyers hungry for them even if we remain too expensive for exports.

Milling wheats of all grades will be the most active markets in coming weeks as the mills open up to new crop supply, and start to actively create their blends. We would encourage everyone who has quality to dip a toe now in these early markets, whilst buyers are engaged. It feels unlikely, but if it does end up being your worst trade of the year later on - you will be happy the markets have gone up when you sell the rest !     

Have a good week.