Monday Market Briefing - 14th October 2024

Last week Defra released their provisional estimates for 2024 English cereal and oilseed rape production.  The English wheat crop is estimated at 9.99mmt, down 22% on the 5 year average of 12.719mmt. Yields have been estimated at 7mt/ha, below the five year average of 8mt/ha. Despite this much reduced crop our 2024 wheat S&D will still have a meaningful exportable surplus due to an additional 1.5mmt carry out and large scale imports. 

Last Friday the USDA released its latest global agricultural supply and demand estimate (WASDE), in which they indicated a 3.2mmt import figure for England, a record. Wheat imports only add to the size of the UK wheat crop, adding to an inconceivable exportable surplus given the plantings last autumn. 

 Overall, the total barley production is estimated at 4.9 Mt, 3% above last year’s production, but 7% below the five-year average. Production has been supported by a considerable rise in spring barley production given a smaller winter barley crop. Winter barley is estimated to fall by 26% to 2mmt, whilst Spring barley is estimated at 2.9mmt, up 41% year on year and 3% above the 5 year average.

 Oilseed rape (OSR) production paints the gloomiest picture, down considerably this year at 687 Kt, 33% less than last year and down 38% on the five-year average. England’s OSR area was estimated at 250 Kha, the lowest area since 1983. 

The autumn weather we are experiencing is precisely what we didn’t need, adding more uncertainty to an already unclear position with regards to SFI and what we hoped were strong planting intentions. However, it feels like we are in a better position than last year with better progress being made in the eastern counties but the prospect of another crop that is muddled in and people are not confident to trade forward is not thrilling.

The WADSE report didn’t chuck us any fireworks and once again outlined a global picture of smaller crops which are more than compensated by growing stocks, a dynamic that is very much in play in the UK aswell.

Have a good week.