Monday Market Briefing - 14th August 2022

With harvest pretty much wrapped up across the south now, the prospect of some rain in the immediate forecast is very welcome indeed. Many calls into the grain desk are from growers hoping to move spot material for lack of space. It’s a nice problem to have and the combination of price, yield and quality must be as favourable a post-harvest situation for growers as we have ever seen. Trade is active for deferred months but the earlier positions so far are a bit slow. The first of our two early Oat vessels arrives this week which will bring a useful burst of action for that crop,  keep in touch with your farm trader for the latest openings as it’s an ever changing picture.  

Markets ended higher on the week after a mixed USDA update late Friday. US corn yields were cut by more than expected but European production was lowered by 8mmt where many expected a bigger drop. The extent of heat damage to corn crops everywhere is now very important. We’ve known for some time that world wheat stocks are adequate – but corn much less so. Corn prices on exchanges have overtaken wheat in recent days which is an unnatural situation making it impossible for wheat to trade lower as it might otherwise do given the supply coming forward. 

Incidentally, and despite everything else going on in the World, the USDA expects ethanol production from US corn to increase its share of the crop both in tonnage terms and also as a percentage of the crop from 35% to 37.4% this season, that’s quite a reality check if the food price crisis ever gets really serious.  

Have a good week.