Fertiliser Market Update

We are seeing Uk & European gas prices starting to rise again as the temperatures begin to fall. The gas futures are portraying higher levels for Q1 of 2023 and this will inevitably increase the cost of production of nitrogen products. There are no domestic terms for Nitram AN 34.5 from CF as they catch up on delivering their outstanding order book. European producers of AN who started production in October are struggling to produce enough for their own domestic market with significantly reduced exports expected. This will further limit the amount of AN products available in the UK for the spring.

Urea prices have softened recently, partly due to the recent strengthening of pound, and is still at a significant discount to ammonium nitrate on the cost of a unit of nitrogen. There are expectations that prices could pick up in the new year as demand increases.

Both Phosphates and Potash prices have softened in the last month to a level where we are seeing an increase in order activity. It is being indicated that forward prices of both P & K are expected to increase.