Russia’s wheat crop this season is forecasted at 84.4 mln MT, which if achieved would be 10 mln MT larger than in 2019.  This extra production is derived from a larger planted area, particularly in the main grain exporting region in southern Russia. However, current dry soil conditions and a lack of rain in the forecast are starting to support Russian wheat prices after a dry March. Crop condition is 94% good/satisfactory, but this could come under pressure if the weather remains dry.

The recent USDA report gave very little changes to Global S&D – other than the expected 9.53 mln MT reduction in corn demand for US ethanol.  Yesterday, OPEC+ countries agreed to remove nearly 20 mln barrels/day – 20% of global oil supply. Energy markets were anticipating such a cut and shrugged off the news; Brent crude at $35/barrel, up £5/barrel from the recent low.

Most areas of the UK should receive some rain this weekend – heavier in the west and patchy further eastwards. Recently drilled spring barley has mostly emerged, but some further rains will be hugely beneficial.

Have a safe week,

Bartholomews Grain Marketing Team