So events in Sevastopol last weekend turned out to be a smokescreen both literally and metaphorically. We rumble on sideways after Mondays rally was wiped out in the following days and when the smoke did clear it was apparent- quite apart from the kneejerk suspension that weekend -  there is a quite separate and detailed negotiation underway around the continuation of the Black Sea Export corridor. Perhaps it’s better to think of it as two corridors, Russia has requested the lifting of sanctions on one of its State Agri Banks to further ease the movement of Russian grain and fertiliser exports. In return presumably Ukraine might be allowed to continue participation as well. 

It’s a delicate situation, and further twists may come along, but with the UN anxious to secure a diplomatic success in this area it’s easy to see why markets are leaning towards a continuation as still being most likely.  

Not that markets need any help in remaining supported, with further weather damage to southern hemisphere prospects for wheat widely reported. Argentina and Australia both now face large downgrades to their exportable surplus of milling wheat. As we’ve noted before, world wheat balances still look pretty healthy on paper - but if you need to buy it, the number of places you can readily go and get it keeps shrinking.  

Also shrinking, are the opportunities to move pre- Christmas grains. There is enough activity ongoing in all markets to move existing business but if you haven’t sold it by now you might have to wait for the New Year. Speak to your farm buyer nicely if there’s a barn that needs emptying.  

Have a good week.