Last week gave us the choppy sideways action we had expected, as the US macro-economic data we referenced in the last briefing became old news, stock markets had a calmer week and commodities were much the same. New crop came under slightly more pressure than the old, probably due to French reports of the wheat crop generally rating 95% good to excellent across Europe, about as positive as that measure gets at this time of year. However with Chicago wheat landing on a key support level it doesn’t feel like the downside has enough momentum left in it to push down through that support, and another similarly flat week is on the cards.

Some early chat about dryness potentially affecting spring crops should dissipate this week as the fourteen day March outlook now shows 50-80mm of rain ( but not the warmth that would really get crops motoring) across literally the whole of Europe including Scandinavia and the UK where the main belt is expected on Friday. We did see a very modest, weather related, sharpening of forward malting barley values last week, if maltsters were more awake than they currently are, it might have been a more significant rally but this will most likely fizzle out now unless that weather forecast changes.

We have soft wheat, oats and malting barley vessels all due in the coming weeks so it’s a busy time both on farm and for the trade as well. If the crop reports continue to show nothing but robust good health there might well be some value in having a little bit of base price protection on the books for both wheat and barley new crop – the possibility to add a hefty premium later on when its safely in the barn is always a useful trading tool.

Have a good week.