Harvest continues at a good pace in most areas and we’ve seen enough wheat now to have a sense of the crop we are dealing with. Overall it’s a low protein crop with average yields as might be expected in a dull summer, but there are wild variations in outcomes in individual locations and the best samples are actually very good. Hagbergs are rock solid and should remain so as the south  looks to have a good spell of weather now to finish off the quality wheats.

Wheat samples dipping under 10% protein will add to the feed heap meaning no prospect of any tightness for UK feed wheat this year – feed will have to compete with cheap corn imports to find homes. Imports of German 13%’s should also increase , meaning we may end up with a modest exportable surplus of 11.5% UKP which will have to find the price point where it works. The poor quality of French wheat will help here.

The US has an excellent wheat crop in the barn now, and this is expected to be joined by an equally impressive corn crop later. So America will provide the brakes for any rally that might try to develop on the struggles of the European/Russian crops. Quite often we see a post-harvest rally as farmers are reluctant sellers in that period, if that develops again this year treat it as the selling opportunity it is.  

Have a good week.