Last Fridays close was £3 higher than the previous week, the first positive week we have had since Christmas. Not a big move and it was difficult to pin a story as to why we got it, Ukraine forecasting lower wheat and corn production for 2023 perhaps. Welcome rains in Argentina were reported and US export stats were higher than expected. Enough all round to halt the downside momentum – and we now have a market which is effectively flat sideways for two years out, Nov 23 and Nov 24 both traded within £5 of the May 23 LIFFE contract. Usually the far-forward contracts give us an indication of where the trade thinks, barring surprises, the market is ultimately headed. This is quite an unusual situation and probably suggests that no-one has the slightest idea what to expect next.

What we can say is the old crop is now supported to some extent by forward prices and has no war premium at all left in it – Russia appears to think it will have shipped enough of its export targets by spring and will be able to cope with a shutdown of the safe corridors should that be necessary. For the time being the queue of ships heading into the region shows no signs of shortening.

At home all markets are active, we are seeing action on all grades of wheat and barley as the UK gets to grips with the heavy programme it needs to complete in the next six months. AHDB’s latest supply and demand survey for the UK came out last week and, as expected, it confirmed a large carry-out looms at the end of the season if we don’t maintain big monthly export volumes. The opportunities are there and its going to be a busy spell now with hopefully lots of interest around for whatever you have left.

Have a good week.