A little unexpectedly markets took a renewed downturn last week, a midweek USDA report had some bullish notes in it but not enough to frighten sellers off. France, UK and Scandinavia all had more rain than had been forecast which probably didn’t help the mood but at least it’s good for the crops. The continuation of the Black Sea Export Corridor beyond its March deadline is now completely priced in and it would be a major shock if anything happened to prevent it. Last week proved that the war can intensify quite sharply without apparently troubling the flow of wheat exports. The pace of out-loading from Ukraine and near neighbours has increased recently and these cargoes weigh heavy on a wheat market trying to absorb a lot of supply in a short window.

China was in again for more European barley, technically this is optional origin business with Ukraine being the only plausible alternative to French, but it is the Port of Rouen that serves as the primary hub of this trade. New crop French feed barley – buoyed by the strong demand - was bid at parity to French milling wheat for the same positions late in the week, which sums up the short-term reality that wheat really is on the back-foot for the time being.

At home, the consensus is we have run out of time now to complete the export programme that would have been required to balance the UK wheat books before harvest. It’s neither the first nor probably the last time this will have happened but it does mean there will be a reasonably chunky carry-out of wheat into next seasons balance sheet. Right now there are still ample opportunities to place all grades of wheat for those who would rather have an empty barn going into harvest, but it can’t all fit into the pot that’s available so time will soon be of the essence.

Have a good week.