The wheat rally from recent lows gathers momentum. Next week, the 23rd February marks Russia’s annual ‘Defender of the Fatherland Day ‘ which was followed last year, the very next day, by the invasion of Ukraine. Is Putin ready to exploit that occasion again this time round ? Skirmishes on the ground at the frontline are intensifying and markets are obviously concerned immediately for the prospects of the export corridor extending much beyond its March deadline.

One thing we don’t have to wonder about, is the return of China into European barley markets. It has emerged that they have bought a staggering quantity of French barley, 35 cargoes and counting so comfortably in excess of one million tonnes , the majority of it being old crop but the shipping programme will extend well into the new crop campaign as well. Argentina has run out of barley and evidently relations with Australia are thawing more slowly than we thought, all of which leaves France as the only alternative for them this year. Officially the sales are all feed, but as any maltster will tell you, you can make beer with winter barley quite happily when you need to, so it’s probably best to view these cargoes as ‘dual use’ in China and their departure will be supportive of both base and malting values this year.

We are definitely seeing some more interest across all grains from old crop buyers at home as the upwards move passes the £20 mark. We expect markets to remain supported this week but bullish moves need lots of fresh news to feed them and perhaps these opportunities at better prices are not to be sniffed at particularly if you have any quantity of old crop to sort out.

Have a good week.